The hottest month on month growth of trade between

The trade between China and Japan increased by 8% month on month in September or hit a record high in September due to data lag

exports increased by 9.9% in September

the data of the General Administration of Customs shows that the resistance of China Japan trade, that is, water vapor dispersion, will be very high and will not be affected by the Diaoyu Island incident; According to the analysis, the data lag, and the fourth quarter may show

data released by the General Administration of Customs on Saturday showed that China's import and export situation showed signs of improvement in September. Among them, the export volume hit a record high in a single month, and the year-on-year growth rate rebounded; The year-on-year growth rate of imports also changed from negative to positive

in addition, the foreign trade situation between China and Japan in the month was not affected by the Diaoyu Island incident, and the bilateral trade volume between China and Japan increased by 8% month on month in September. However, experts believe that the foreign trade data has a certain lag, and the impact of the fourth quarter may appear in the future

data show that the total value of China's imports and exports in the month was 345.03 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.3%

on September 11, the Japanese government announced the purchase of Diaoyu Islands and the implementation of the so-called nationalization, which aroused Chinese protests

however, the bilateral trade volume between China and Japan in September was US $3084 billion, although it decreased by 4% year-on-year, but it still increased by 8% month on month

Liu Yuanchun, deputy dean of the school of economics of Renmin University of China, said that the geopolitical factors between China and Japan were not reflected because the import and export goods delivered in September were previous orders and had a certain lag. However, in the fourth quarter, as the Diaoyu Island incident continues to ferment, China Japan bilateral trade will be affected to a certain extent

previously, shendanyang, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said that the farce of Japan's illegal purchase of the island was bound to affect and damage the normal development of Sino Japanese economic and trade relations

customs statistics show that China is Japan's largest export destination and import source country, and Japan is China's fourth largest trading partner. In 2011, the bilateral trade volume between China and Japan was 342.89 billion US dollars, accounting for 9% of China's total foreign trade value. In the first three quarters of this year, the total value of bilateral trade between China and Japan was US $248.76 billion, down 1.8%

■ interpretation

the analysis of the financial research center of the Bank of communications believes that the reasons for the new high:

1 Seasonal favorable factors promote

2 the major developed economies in Europe, the United States and Japan joined hands to stimulate quantitative easing

3 the introduction of domestic stable foreign trade policies

Liu Yuanchun believes that the improvement in the import situation is related to the end of domestic destocking and a series of stable growth policies, and there is still room for growth in the fourth quarter

exports to the EU, China's largest trading partner, fell by 10.7% year-on-year in September, the fourth consecutive month of decline

Liu Yuanchun said that whether the EU will impose anti-dumping duties on our photovoltaic products in the future will have an impact

Liu Yuanchun said that since the import and export commodities delivered in September were previous orders, there was a certain lag, but in the fourth quarter, with the continuous fermentation of the Diaoyu Island incident, China Japan bilateral trade will be affected to a certain extent

■ analysis

there is no final conclusion whether the annual goal can be achieved

customs data show that in the first three quarters of this year, China's total import and export value was 2842.47 billion US dollars, an increase of 6.2% over the same period last year. This is still far from the 10% growth target set at the beginning of the year. However, Liu Yuanchun said that since the fourth quarter of each year is the busiest period of foreign trade, the growth rate can often affect nearly 40% of the annual growth rate, so whether it can meet the standard this year is uncertain

he said that the future foreign trade situation depends on the external environment, such as whether the series of easing policies launched by European and American countries can stimulate external demand, the trend of European debt crisis, whether the US fiscal cliff is coming, and the economic trend of emerging market countries; At the same time, it also depends on whether China's previous series of policies to stabilize foreign trade can achieve the expected results if they need to be adjusted. He said that the September data can only show that there are signs of stabilization in short-term foreign trade, but there are still many variables in the medium and long term

in September this year, the State Council issued the "several opinions on promoting the stable growth of foreign trade" (also known as the eight articles on stabilizing foreign trade). The General Administration of Customs announced 16 supporting measures on the eve of the National Day holiday, including the cancellation of three charges, which have been officially implemented since October 1. Technical parameters: