The hottest global capital market is Obama effect,

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Global capital markets are now "Obama effect" China needs to prevent pressure from the United States

global capital markets are now "Obama effect" China needs to prevent pressure from the United States

November 8, 2012

[China paint information] around noon Beijing time yesterday, the global news agency broadcast the same message almost at the same time - Obama defeated Romney and was successfully elected the 57th president of the United States. Many people in the financial market believe that Obama's re-election is precisely due to the "Butterfly Effect" caused by Hurricane sandy, which landed in the United States a week ago. Regardless of whether this connection is reliable or not, while the news of Obama's victory spread, the butterfly wings seemed to continue to flap, which had an impact on the global stock market, futures market and foreign exchange market

the end of the new "Friends of gold"

US election has injected a "boost" into the price trend of precious metals represented by gold and silver. After Obama's successful re-election as president of the United States was announced, the precious metal market rose rapidly. As of 15:00 on November 7, the international gold price rose further, by more than 2%, while the spot silver rose by more than 3.43%

"Obama's victory means that the gold price may continue to rise, because Obama may continue to maintain the monetary easing policy, which is the key factor supporting the rise of gold prices in recent years." Analysts pointed out that as the qe3 policy will continue to be implemented, the market's expectations for inflation will also increase accordingly, the dollar may continue its current depreciation path, and gold and silver may end the recent downward trend and open a new round of upward trend. Previously, the international gold price once fell to around us $1670/ounce. Investment guru Rogers also said, "the policies of Obama's new term will push up commodity prices and drive down the price of the dollar." For the rise of precious metals such as gold and silver, market participants joked, "gold has found a new good friend, that is Obama." Drive

the era of weak dollar continues

Obama won, but the dollar plummeted. At noon yesterday, the news that Obama was re elected spread. The US dollar fell against all major currencies in the world, and the US dollar index plunged to an intraday low of 80.27, more than 0.5% higher than yesterday's highest price of 80.72. The euro, sterling, commodities and other risky assets were all "rising", and the RMB exchange rate hit the daily limit for the ninth time in 10 days

Obama and his opponent Romney have very different economic policies. Obama advocates taxing the rich and implementing the industrialization strategy of returning the real economy to the United States; Romney believes that we should return to a free economy. Some institutional analysts believe that Obama's re-election will be bad for the dollar, while Romney's victory will be good for the stock market

sun Lijian, a professor at the school of economics of Fudan University, said that Obama's desire to solve the problem of low - and middle-income employment security will make the loose monetary policy longer, and the dollar will face the expectation of depreciation. However, whether its size control can play a very important role in terms of printing quality and printing speed within appropriate limitations will also increase the pressure on the value of RMB's powerful Chinese Windows software. In addition, Chen Jing, an analyst at BOC International, said that the reason for the continued appreciation of the RMB has not been found. Even if there is capital inflow, it is only a short-term arbitrage behavior and will not exist for a long time. With the recovery of the U.S. economy, these funds may return to the United States again

the window of domestic oil price reduction was delayed

international oil prices welcomed Obama's re-election with the largest one-day increase in nearly a month. On the 6th, New York crude oil futures WTI, as a weathervane, rose $3 to close at $88.71 a barrel, up 3.75%. With the dust of the US election settled, international oil prices showed a slight rebound in Asia yesterday. A number of institutions pointed out that Obama's re-election means that the quantitative easing measures in the United States can continue, and commodities have been boosted. The short-term oil price has a slight upward trend, but it is difficult to change the downward curve of the change rate of the three places, which may only narrow its decline

therefore, the price adjustment window of domestic refined oil may be delayed. At present, some institutions predict that the price adjustment window will open on the 12th, some point to the 13th, and some believe that it will fall below the red line of -4% on the 15th. This means that the price adjustment may have to be postponed until mid November. Previously, institutions judged that the price adjustment window would open as soon as November 9

a-share non-ferrous stocks counter attack

due to Obama's re-election or the continuation of monetary easing policy, the non-ferrous metal sector in the A-share market suddenly rose yesterday, becoming the most active sector in the day. As of the close, the A-share Shanghai index closed at 2105.73 points, down 0.27 points, or 0.01%, but the non-ferrous smelting and processing sector rose 1.59% against the trend, with two related stocks, Yiqiu resources (601388) and Lufeng shares (002379) trading

in addition to the A-share related industries being boosted, most of the major stock markets in the Asia Pacific also ended up, with the Korean composite index rising 0.49%, the Australian stock exchange common stock index rising 0.68%, the Taiwan weighted index rising 0.70%, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index closing up 0.71%

- lace

Aucma stained with Obama's light

if it is understandable that the commodity sector successfully counter attacked the stock market under Obama's re-election, then Aucma (600336) broke out instantly in the A-share market yesterday, which is a little puzzling

at the opening of the morning market yesterday, Aucma's share price has been falling with the market. However, after the reopening in the afternoon, Aucma suddenly rose in a straight line, rising by more than 4%, sweeping away the decline in the morning and becoming a "dark horse" without warning. According to yesterday's stock market news, we did not find any public information of Aucma that could affect the stock price, and relevant research institutions in the financial market did not give corresponding explanations

in this regard, anecdotal rumors give the answer, "the dust of the U.S. presidential election has settled, and Obama has been re elected successfully. Aucma's pronunciation is similar to Obama, so it is particularly favored by hot money." More investors joked, "Obama's younger brother Aucma is expected to be honored, and one person can get the truth that the chicken and dog ascend to heaven to meet the tensile tests of different specifications of specimens." As of the close, Aucma closed at 4.96 yuan, up 0.40%

- viewpoint

China is ready to meet "qe4"

"after qe3, we may welcome the introduction of qe4." Sun Lijian, deputy dean of the school of economics of Fudan University, analyzed that Obama's re-election as president of the United States has two impacts on China's economy: first, the depreciation of the US dollar brought about by monetary easing, strengthening China's expectation of RMB appreciation; Second, trade barriers to China will escalate, which may bring pressure on China's exports

Zhao Qingming, an expert on international issues and a visiting professor at the University of international business and economics, said in an interview that Obama did not mention the RMB exchange rate too much in the competition with Romney, but this does not mean that he will ignore this issue. At present, the pressure on employment in the United States is still great, and the United States may still put pressure on the exchange rate. In addition, there may be more trade frictions between the two countries in the future, and the U.S. government may also sing duets with its industrial departments, Jointly resist imports and strengthen exports in order to realize their "Reindustrialization" and "export doubling plan" strategies

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