The hottest global competition for natural gas, co

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Is the global competition for natural gas, coal and nuclear power coming to an end

after years of efforts, renewable energy can finally occupy a place in the energy market without massive subsidies or other policy interventions. The latest research report of the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the renewable energy industry shows the remarkable progress being made in this industry, especially its continuous cost reduction

renewable energy cannot transform the whole energy industry, but in the field of electricity, they begin to have a profound and disruptive impact on the existing competitive order

the report of the International Energy Agency describes the remarkable progress made by renewable energy in the past year, and predicts that renewable energy will continue to grow in the next five years. Progress has focused on solar power generation. Last year, the installed capacity of solar power generation increased by 50%, and 660 gigawatts (GW) will be added by 2022

in 2016, two thirds of the world's new installed power generation capacity came from renewable energy. By 2022, the continuous growth of renewable energy will enable it to take 30% of the global power market, and the total increase of installed capacity will reach 920 GW. As a market leader, China has quickly combined its strong manufacturing capacity with its technological strength to create an industry with significantly lower costs

this prediction of the International Energy Agency is in sharp contrast to the agency's previous cautious attitude towards renewable energy. Five years ago, the agency issued a report saying that we are entering the golden age of natural gas - which encourages some enterprises to invest in a series of huge projects, many of which rely on costly liquefaction processes. At that time, the growth forecast of natural gas consumption was obviously overly optimistic, and its actual growth was limited, while the supply was boosted and the price was reduced

is the growth forecast of renewable energy more credible this time? If this is the case, it will have a great impact on the global energy structure, natural gas The answer to the first question is yes. In the past two years, solar energy and wind energy have made enough progress to change their prospects.

in recent years, wind energy has made considerable progress in productivity and cost. At the recent wind energy auction, the electricity price of hornsea 2, a new wind power project in the North Sea, was as low as mw/hr £ 57.5. This cost does not include the cost of standby power generation capacity required in the absence of wind, but even if this item is included, the final cost is far lower than the electricity price of 92.5 pounds per megawatt hour for new nuclear power plants. Wind energy and solar energy jointly set a new competitive benchmark

the base and growth potential of hydropower is also huge, especially in South Asia and sub Saharan Africa, and this kind of renewable energy is also important

the International Energy Agency predicts that the installed power generation capacity of renewable energy worldwide will increase by more than 40% in the next five years, which seems reasonable. If policy makers and regulators can solve the problems of developing decentralized power sources, including allowing enterprises to generate electricity by themselves and selling the remaining power to electricity, this figure may be higher

of course, the growth of renewable energy will have some unpleasant effects on existing suppliers. Electricity demand is growing, but new low-cost sources will replace competing fuels. Coal is the most vulnerable, especially where emissions are regulated. However, natural gas will also lose market share, and in some places will be degraded to the fuel used to maintain the balance of power generation, providing backup power generation capacity when necessary. However, if energy storage technology can solve the problem of intermittent renewable energy power generation, the role of natural gas will be greatly reduced

the progress of renewable energy has changed the market structure and opened up new prospects in many countries. For example, distributed solar power generation in India and sub Saharan Africa can lift millions of people out of poverty. The International Energy Agency estimates that more than 70 million people will use basic electricity services at home for the first time in the next five years

therefore, as far as the electricity market is concerned, we are at a major turning point. The economics of every other potential source of power will be compared with the declining costs of wind and solar power

as a commercial proposal, renewable energy seems to continue to develop, but to establish real global competition, large-scale restructuring of the industry seems essential. In Europe and the United States, renewable energy is too fragmented and economies of scale are seriously insufficient. The supply chain has not been well integrated, and there is too little long-term capital to support potential growth

but these are the problems associated with success (IEC 60695 ⑵ ⑴ 3) gwit: (0.35mm) 900 ℃, which can be solved. Renewable energy is no longer a thing that people remember in the energy business to ensure their survival and health, and foaming products can be recycled. Instead, it is a growing and competitive industry, bringing disruption and risks to existing energy suppliers

however, it is important to maintain a concept of proportion. Wind and solar energy are almost entirely used for power generation, while electricity accounts for only about 40% of the global final energy demand. The impact of renewable energy sources is not so strong in the main areas of energy consumption, such as heating, transportation vehicles other than light vehicles, and industrial uses such as the production of steel, cement and petrochemical products. Some of these areas can be electrified in theory, but may be costly. In other areas, any change in the structure of energy supply is a distant future. Renewable energy has made significant progress, but this is not the end of the story

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